NEW YORK (AP) — The largest retail trade group in the United States says it expects consumers to spend more during the upcoming holiday season but the growth in sales to be slower than last year due to concerns over persistent inflation and prices.

The National Retail Federation said Tuesday that its 2024 forecast indicates shoppers will make $979.5 billion to $989 billion worth of purchases in November and December.

That would represent a 2.5%-3.5% increase over the same two-month period a year ago.

However, sales during the 2023 holiday shopping season were 3.9% higher than in 2022.

The group makes its calculations based on government figures.

The numbers exclude sales at automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.